Best Picture:
- 127 Hours
- Another Year
- Black Swan
- The Fighter
- Inception
- The King's Speech
- The Social Network
- Somewhere
- Toy Story 3
- True Grit
These are my predictions for Best Picture. I have tried to strike the Academy's usual balance of independent cinema and blockbuster spectacle as well as their typical mixture of uplifting, entertaining movies and dark, arthouse efforts. In the arthouse corner, I have predicted Somewhere, The Social Network and Black Swan to receive nominations. Not only have Aronofsky, Fincher and Sofia Coppola's films been nominated before, bear in mind, but they have also received stunning reviews from Venice, Toronto and, in the case of The Social Network, rave responses from a few select individuals who've been lucky to have a preview. Moreover, there's the newest release from Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit, and Danny Boyle's 127 Hours. Both directors, who won in 2007 and 2008, are very likely to be considered for their earlier successes during the awards season.
But then there's the big popcorn movies like Inception - which will surely be a contender after the controversy over The Dark Knight's snub and the fact that it grossed hundreds of millions of dollars - and Toy Story 3. Let's face it, I mean, who didn't fall in love with the Pixar sequel? Also in there, as a bit of an outsider, is The Fighter. It's not been screened anywhere yet, but given it's rags-to-riches subject matter along with the crew behind it, David O Russell's movie might be a huge hit.
Lastly, like An Education in 2009, Slumdog Millionaire in 2008, and Atonement in 2007, there's the token British movies. The Academy, it seems, like their Brit flicks elegant and heartfelt with both drama and humour so Another Year and The King's Speech, thanks to a great buzz from festivals around the world, are likely to be guaranteed a spot come 2011.
What might also be contenders?
Hereafter - It all depends on the audience's reaction, I suppose, but after the mediocre reviews from TIFF it's probably going to miss out on a nomination for Best Picture.
Winter's Bone - Though it fully deserves it, Winter's Bone might be a bit too tough and disturbing for the Academy. Moreover, they will likely favour Fox Searchlight's other independent release 127 Hours anyway.
Love And Other Drugs - The Oscars love their all-American melodramas. Just look at The Blind Side's success last year. But is Love And Other Drugs going to be anything spectacular at the end of the day? The trailer seems to suggest not.
Never Let Me Go - Compared to the their usual choices for the token British nominations, Never Let Me Go may be a bit too dark for the Academy. Alongside mixed reviews from Toronto, this is likely to stunt the movie's chances of a Best Picture nomination.
4 comments:
Will comment properly later but a sidenote: You seen Exit Through the Gift Shop yet? I think you'll love it.
* 127 Hours - I think it'll be a standard nomination here, I cannot wait for Franco's performance. I don't think it'll win because it's too isolated and too soon for Boyle. The Academy want something big!
* Another Year - Mike Leigh fairs well for solid main nominations even if his films are mildly recieved but well distributed enough. The day he wins will be the day I complode.
* Black Swan - Looks awesome. Aronofsky will bend minds and this will probably be the Mulholland Drive of this decade. But it won't win anything unless Portman gets great big buzz.
* The Fighter - I used to have an intense excitement for this film when I heard Aronofsky was going to do it since I was excited for The Wrestler too. Then when Aronofsky wasn't doing it I lost interest in both which lead to intense surprise in The Wrestler. Anyway, I still haven't got much faith in this film no matter how much I like Wahlberg and Bale but I'll still see it. I think it'll get snubbed, maybe one or two noms if something stands out.
* Inception - Looks like a shoe-in, but I reckon it'll be the same story as TDK. Two oscar tech wins at best.
* The King's Speech - This looks like it's the frontrunner. I still got no idea what it's about both story and themewise.
* The Social Network - Quite a gamble I reckon. I think it'll end up on two sides of the average scale instead of any extremes. If a mild reaction, I don't think they'll respond to it at all.
* Somewhere - Perhaps... At least an original screenplay nom I guess.
* Toy Story 3 - I hope it wins. <3
* True Grit - Can't wait for it as it's Coen, but again, like Boyle, it's too soon to give them more oscars.
What do you predict for winner, both picture and director?
I pretty much agree with everything you've said.
Well, except for The Fighter, I don't like the look of it either but I think it'll be one of those big, sentimental, heavyweight dramas that the Academy luuuuurve. Seeing as Aronofsky was attatched and Brad Pitt was at a time too, there must be something great about the story, I guess.
Yeah, Somewhere and The Social Network are my biggest guesses. The former might be too quiet and subtle for their usual taste while the latter, well, it just might not be that good. Who knows?
I haven't got a clue what will win it really. I'd also like to see Toy Story 3 win it because I truly do adore Pixar and the whole Toy Story franchise, but I think it might be a bit controversial to award what's essentially an animated kids movie with the top prize. Soooooo... I'm going to go with The King's Speech.
I'll post my director nominations soon and we can argue about that there. ;)
Yeah, please do. It's a great year for comedies with substance which the Academy always ignore rather than dramas but perhaps there will be a few films that break out the starting gate late and storm to the finish.
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